Energy Economics and Forecasting

July 6-7, 2015

'a mini-workshop ... within MEPS15'

The Energy Economics and Forecasting Session is a mini-workshop ... within the MEPS15 Symposium:

The topics include, but are not limited to emissions trading, electricity spot price and load forecasting and modeling, power market data filtering, probabilistic forecasting and risk assessment, renewables, valuation of commodity derivatives and wind power. This event continues the tradition of the Energy Finance Christmas workshops (EFC11 - Wrocław, EFC12 - Sydney, EFC13 - Oslo, EFC14 - St.Gallen) and the Statistics in Energy Session (SMSA15 - Wrocław).

Speakers, organizers, venue (updated 2015-06-23)
Workshop timetable and slides (updated 2015-06-23)
Travel tips, accommodation suggestions (updated 2015-06-22)
Google map with all major locations of interest (updated 2015-06-22)


Invited speakers:

Michael Coulon (Sussex, UK)
Rita D'Ecclesia (Rome, I)
Grzegorz Dudek (Częstochowa, PL)
Dominic Hewes (Munich, D)
Emil Iversen (Lyngby, DK)
Oskar Knapik (Aarhus, DK)
Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska (Wrocław, PL)
Dominik Liebl (Bonn, D)
Carlo Lucheroni (Camerino, I)
Katarzyna Maciejowska (Wrocław, PL)
Carlo Mari (Pescara, I)
Paweł Maryniak (Wrocław, PL)
Monika Papież (Kraków, PL)
Matteo Pelagatti (Milan, I)
Sławomir Śmiech (Kraków, PL)
Proietti Tommaso (Rome, I)
Stefan Trueck (Sydney, AUS)
Florian Ziel (Frankfurt a.Oder, D)

Hosted by:
Rafał Weron

Venue:
Wrocław University of Technology (WUT), Poland
Building D-20
(WUT campus map:
JPG, 1.9MB)


Workshop timetable:
Note that all talks - except keynotes - are 30 min, including discussion.

Monday, July 6, 2015

11:30-12:00 Coffee break

12:00-14:00 Session 2 "Energy markets and RES" (4 x 30 min)
Session chair:
Stefan Trueck

  • Rita D'Ecclesia, European gas markets: Are we approaching a single market?
  • Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska, Social acceptance of green energy and dynamic electricity tariffs - a short review
  • Matteo Pelagatti, Italian wholesale electricity market: RES effects across day-ahead and balancing markets
  • Paweł Maryniak, Utilizing forward looking capacity constraints to assess the probability of an electricity price spike

14:00-15:30 Lunch

15:30-17:30 Session 4 "Structural modeling in energy markets" (4 x 30 min)
Session chair:
Rita D'Ecclesia

  • Michael Coulon, Structural price modelling and hourly resolution forward curves for the Germany power market
  • Dominik Liebl, Estimating the price-effects of Germany's nuclear phase-out: A longitudinal/functional data perspective
  • Carlo Lucheroni/Carlo Mari, Energy portfolios, stochastic LCOE and deviation measures
  • Dominic Hewes, Influence of energy mix on the future grid integration of PV and wind in Europe

17:30-19:00 Welcome reception

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

09:00-10:30 Keynote lectures 3&4 (2 x 45 min)
  • Stefan Trueck, Carbon pass-through costs in wholesale electricity markets
  • Ivan Dudurych, Operational security of modern power transmission system

10:30-11:00 Coffee break

11:00-13:00 Session 6 "Modeling and forecasting prices" (4 x 30 min)
Session chair:
Michael Coulon

13:00-14:30 Lunch

14:30-16:30 Session 8 "Forecasting loads and renewables"(4 x 30 min)
Session chair:
Carlo Lucheroni

  • Emil Iversen, Recent advances and challenges in probabilistic renewable energy forecasting
  • Grzegorz Dudek, Multilayer perception for short-term load forecasting: from global to local approach
  • Florian Ziel, Modelling and forecasting electricity load using LASSO methods
  • Rafał Weron, Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts

16:30-17:00 Coffee break


Travel tips:
(see these locations on Google maps)

Check the Wrocław airport website for direct flights to/from Wrocław. Bus #406 runs every 20 minutes to the Central Railway Station, which is ca. 20 min walking distance from downtown or 4-7 tram/bus stops from WUT (trams #0L, #2 and buses #145, #146 - to PL.GRUNWALDZKI). See the timetable of bus #406 for departure times (PORT LOTNICZY = Airport, DWORCOWA = Central Railway Station; PL.GRUNWALDZKI = bus/tram stop in the vicinity of WUT)

It is also possible to reach Wrocław by train (a 3:30 hour connection to/from Dresden runs 3 times a day). For connections and prices see the
PKP website

In Wrocław you can use trams/buses (
timetables) or taxis (phone numbers) for local communication. The conference site (at WUT) can be reached from tram/bus stop PL.GRUNWALDZKI (ca. 3 min). Single-ride (bilet jednorazowy) and 30-minute (bilet czasowy) tickets cost 3.00 PLN.

Here you can find a trip planner (tram/bus connections within Wrocław).

Accommodation suggestions:

Nice and cozy:

  • The Granary - La Suite Hotel***** (downtown, ca. 30 min walk to WUT or 5 min walk and 4/5 tram stops, ca. 550 PLN/night w/breakfast)
  • Art hotel**** (downtown, ca. 35 min walk to WUT or 10 min walk and 4/5 tram stops, ca. 320 PLN/night w/breakfast)
  • Hotel of John Paul II**** (near the Cathedral, close to downtown and WUT, ca. 25 min walk to WUT or 10 min walk and 3/4 tram stops, ca. 260 PLN/night w/breakfast)

More hotels on booking.com

(exchange rate: 1 EUR = ca. 4.20/4.40 PLN, other currencies)


More business like:

  • Radisson Blu Hotel, Wroclaw***** (on the way from WUT to downtown, ca. 20 min walk to WUT or 5 min walk and 3/4 tram stops, ca. 400 PLN/night w/breakfast)
  • Sofitel Wrocław Old Town**** (downtown, ca. 35 min walk to WUT or 10 min walk and 4/5 tram stops, ca. 470 PLN/night w/breakfast)
  • Hotel Mercure*** (on the way from WUT to downtown; ca. 25 min walk to WUT or 3/4 tram stops, ca. 360 PLN/night w/breakfast)
  • WenderEDU Hotel** (near the Cathedral, close to downtown and WUT, ca. 20 min walk to WUT or 5 min walk and 3/4 tram stops, ca. 150 PLN/night w/breakfast)


Rafał Weron's homepage

Last modified on 2015-11-26