Economic consequences of consumer opinion formation and decision making:
Agent-based modeling of innovation diffusion

Grant no.: NCN 2013/11/B/HS4/01061
Funding agency:
National Science Centre (NCN), Poland
Funding scheme: OPUS
Funding period: 10.07.2014-09.01.2017 (30 months), extended to 09.08.2017 (37 months)
Budget:
499 700 PLN
Title in Polish: Ekonomiczne konsekwencje kształtowania się opinii i podejmowania decyzji przez konsumentów: Modelowanie agentowe dyfuzji innowacji

Research team [8+]
Aims and scope
Tasks
Publications [19+]
Selected conference talks and posters
Developed software components

Research webpage (strona Badania)


Research team:

Principal Investigator ( Kierownik):

Senior Investigators (Główni wykonawcy):

Investigators (Wykonawcy):

Collaborators ( Współpracownicy):

- Ph.D. / M.Sc. student

Aims and scope:

We propose to use agent-based models (ABM) for analyzing the process of innovation diffusion on a basis of both, market mechanisms and social interactions. We identify four aims:

  • to expand existing models of opinion dynamics in a way to be able to analyze macro- and microeconomic problems,
  • to understand how different factors (such as social network structure, opinion dynamics) influence the process of innovation diffusion, the shape of the demand curve and the equilibrium price,
  • to provide a rigorous study of the details of ABM that allow us to evaluate which features are critical for innovation diffusion,
  • to apply the developed tools and techniques to the markets for electricity tariffs and (e-)books to better understand the differences and similarities between the diffusion of privately and publicly desired goods.

From the point of view of economic and societal impact this project contributes to (i) shedding light on the efficiency of proecological campaigns, their rate of success and on the actions that can be undertaken to improve market penetration of publicly desired innovations, like dynamic and green electricity tariffs, and (ii) developing tools that can be useful in designing future marketing campaigns.


Tasks:

  1. Analyzing economic consequences of consumer opinion formation and decision making - effects on the demand curve and equilibrium pricing.
  2. Analyzing network structures and social opinion dynamics for efficient diffusion of innovations.
  3. Modeling the diffusion of innovations in the markets for electricity tariffs and (e-)books as examples of publicly and privately desired goods.


Publications:

Peer-reviewed articles in JCR-listed journals

2017 (2+), 2016 (10), 2015 (2), 2014 (1)

  1. A. Jędrzejewski (2017) Pair approximation for the q-voter model with independence on complex networks, Physical Review E 95, 012307 (doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.95.012307)
  2. T. Krueger, J. Szwabiński, T. Weron (2017) Conformity, anticonformity and polarization of opinions: Insights from a mathematical model of opinion dynamics, Entropy 19, 371 (doi: 10.3390/e19070371)

  3. R. Apriasz, T. Krueger, G. Marcjasz, K. Sznajd-Weron (2016) The hunt opinion model - an agent based approach to recurring fashion cycles, PLoS ONE 11(11), e0166323 (doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0166323).
  4. M. Bodych, N. Ganguly, T. Krueger, A. Mukherjee, R. Siegmund-Schultze, S. Sikdar (2016) Threshold-based epidemic dynamics in systems with memory, EPL 116(4) 48004 (doi: 10.1209/0295-5075/116/48004).
  5. K. Byrka, A. Jędrzejewski, K. Sznajd-Weron, R. Weron (2016) Difficulty is critical: The importance of social factors in modeling diffusion of green products and practices, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 62, 723-735 (doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.04.063). Earlier working paper version available from RePEc: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wuu/wpaper/hsc1510.html
  6. A. Jędrzejewski, K. Sznajd-Weron, J. Szwabiński (2016) Mapping the q-voter model: From a single chain to complex networks, Physica A 446, 110-119 (doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.11.005). Earlier working paper version available from arxiv:1501.05091.
  7. A. Kowalska-Pyzalska, K. Ćwik, A. Jędrzejewski, K. Sznajd-Weron (2016) Linking consumer opinions with reservation prices in an agent-based model of innovation diffusion, Acta Physica Polonica A 129(5), 1055-1059 (doi: 10.12693/APhysPolA.129.1055). Working paper version available from RePEc: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wuu/wpaper/hsc1603.html
  8. A. Kowalska-Styczeń, K. Sznajd-Weron (2016) From consumer decision to market share. How important are details in the cellular automaton approach?, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 19(4), 10 (doi: 10.18564/jasss.3156; http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/19/4/10.html).  
  9. K. Maciejowska, A. Jędrzejewski, A. Kowalska-Pyzalska, R. Weron (2016) Impact of social interactions on demand curves for innovative products, Acta Physica Polonica A 129(5), 1045-1049 (doi:  10.12693/APhysPolA.129.1045).  Working paper version available from RePEc: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wuu/wpaper/hsc1604.html
  10. P. Nail, K. Sznajd-Weron (2016) The diamond model of social response within an agent-based approach, Acta Physica Polonica A 129(5), 1050-1054 (doi: 10.12693/APhysPolA.129.1050).  Working paper version available from RePEc: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wuu/wpaper/hsc1602.html
  11. P. Siedlecki, J. Szwabiński, T. Weron (2016) The interplay between conformism and anticonformism and its polarizing effect on society, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 19(4), 9 (doi: 10.18564/jasss.3203; http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/19/4/9.html). Working paper version available from arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1603.07556
  12. G. Suchacka, G. Chodak, (2016) Using association rules to assess purchase probability in online stores, Information Systems and e-Business Management, (doi: 10.1007/s10257-016-0329-4).

  13. A. Chmiel, K. Sznajd-Weron (2015) Phase transitions in the q-voter model with noise on a duplex clique, Physical Review E 92, 052812 (doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.052812). Earlier working paper version available from arXiv:1503.01400.
  14. A. Jędrzejewski, A. Chmiel, K. Sznajd-Weron (2015) Oscillating hysteresis in the q-neighbor Ising model, Physical Review E 92, 052105 (doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.052105). Earlier working paper version available from arXiv:1507.01103.

  15. K. Sznajd-Weron, J. Szwabiński, R. Weron (2014) Is the person-situation debate important for agent-based modeling and vice versa?, PLoS ONE 9(11), e112203 (doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0112203)

Book chapters

  1. ...

Conference papers

  1. G. Chodak, G. Suchacka (2017) An experiment with Facebook as an advertising channel for books and audiobooks, Proceedings of the 37th International Conference on Information Systems Architecture and Technology (ISAT 2016) – Part I, 221-233 (doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-46583-8_18) [ 2.7 MB]
  2. A. Kowalska-Pyzalska (2016) An analysis of factors enhancing adoption of smart metering platforms: An agent-based modeling approach, IEEE Conference Proceedings, EEM16 (doi: 10.1109/EEM.2016.7521246)
  3. G. Suchacka, G. Chodak (2016) Characterizing Web sessions of e-customers interested in traditional and innovative products, Proceedings of the 30th European Conference on Modelling and Simulation (ECMS16), 635-640 [ 1.25 MB]
  4. A. Kowalska-Pyzalska (2015) Social acceptance of green energy and dynamic electricity tariffs - a short review, MEPS'15 Conference Proceedings, paper ID 92 (doi: 10.1109/MEPS.2015.7477192). Working paper version available from RePEc: http://ideas.repec.org/p/wuu/wpaper/hsc1507.html

Forthcoming publications

  1. ...

Submitted papers and work in progress

  1. A. Kowalska-Pyzalska (2016) What makes consumers adopt to innovative energy services in the energy market?, submitted.
  2. T. Krueger, J. Szwabiński, T. Weron (2016) Conformity, anticonformity and polarization of opinions: insights from a mathematical model of opinion dynamics, submitted. Working paper version available from arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1608.08810.

  3. K. Byrka, P. Nail, P. Nyczka, K. Sznajd-Weron (2016) Is 75% already unanimity? The diamond model of social response within an agent-based approach, work in progress.
  4. A. Chmiel, A. Jędrzejewski, K. Sznajd-Weron (2016) Social temperature or independence? Stochastic noise in models of opinion dynamics, work in progress.
  5. A. Chmiel, K. Sznajd-Weron, R. Weron (2016) The role of anticonformity in diffusion of innovation, work in progress.
  6. G. Chodak, G. Suchacka (2016) Read or listen - a comparative study of online bookstore customers based on Web traffic analysis, work in progress.
  7. S. Delitzscher, T. Krueger (2016) The communication index of graphs, work in progress.
  8. A. Kowalska-Pyzalska, K. Maciejowska (2016) Producer surplus in an agent-based model of innovation diffusion, work in progress.
  9. K. Maciejowska (2016) Optimal decisions of a monopolist under word-of-mouth marketing, work in progress.
  10. K. Maciejowska, A. Jędrzejewski, A. Kowalska-Pyzalska, K. Sznajd-Weron, R. Weron (2016) Two faces of word-of-mouth: Understanding the impact of social interactions on demand curves for innovative products, under major revision. Working paper version available from RePEc: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wuu/wpaper/hsc1509.html
  11. K. Sznajd-Weron, R. Weron (2016) Delayed take-offs and saddles in a modified Bass model, work in progress.
  12. K. Sznajd-Weron, R. Weron (2016) Pulsing advertising in a modified Bass model, work in progress.


Posters:

  1. A. Jędrzejewski (2016) Rethinking the person-situation approach - towards a more realistic model, NetSciX, 11-13.01.2016, Wrocław, Poland [ 620 KB]
  2. A. Kowalska-Pyzalska (2016) Impact of word-of-mouth on producer surplus: an agent-based modeling approach, NetSciX, 11-13.01.2016, Wrocław, Poland [ 670 KB]
  3. K. Maciejowska (2016) Optimal pricing in social networks: a perspective of the innovation diffusion process, NetSciX, 11-13.01.2016, Wrocław, Poland [ 550 KB]
  4. K. Sznajd-Weron (2016) The size of the group matters!, NetSciX, 11-13.01.2016, Wrocław, Poland [765 KB]
  5. J. Szwabiński (2016) Mapping the q-voter model: from a single chain to complex networks, NetSciX, 11-13.01.2016, Wrocław, Poland [ 1.44 MB]
  6. T. Weron (2016) Conformity or anticonformity? Opinion dynamics in a double clique topology, NetSciX, 11-13.01.2016, Wrocław, Poland [ 1.39 MB]

  7. A. Jędrzejewski (2015) Oscillating hysteresis in the q-neighbor Ising model, Bad Honnef Physics School on Computational Physics of Complex and Disordered Systems, 20-25.09.2015, Bad Honnef, Germany [ 430 KB]
  8. A. Jędrzejewski (2015) Difficulty is critical - a new approach to innovation diffusion, Stochastic Modeling of Anomalous Dynamics in Complex Physical and Biological Systems, 14-16.05.2015, Wrocław, Poland [ 680 KB]

Last modified on 2017-07-20.